Week 2: Start/Sit
No, not him. I said, "No." Bruh. Just stop. NO. Ok, yes, him. He's fine, too.
I’m still trying to figure out if last week actually happened.
We started with a Kelce-less Chiefs team losing by a Kadarius Toney drop single point to the Detroit Lions, who justified all of their pre-season steam and surprised over half the country (55% of bets were on the Chiefs to cover).
Even more bettors had the Steelers (56%).
Seattle was a bigger loser with 68% of the bets.
We all thought WAS -6.5 against the Cardinals was a lock. 78% of us had the Potatoes who didn’t cover.
Road teams were 12-4 against the spread.
The point is, an off-season of “conventional wisdom” and consensus can be quickly and easily turned on it’s head. 100% of people who started Aaron Rodgers will agree. Fantasy was just as volatile a Week 1 environment as betting consensus. Mac Jones was QB2, as predicted by nobody. The rest of the QB top 12 was as foretold, until you get to Baker Mayfield and Sam Howell sneaking in at 11 and 12.
RBs were a bit more surprising. Breece Hall decided he was fine and finished at 11. Kyren Williams and Roschon Johnson hold-my-beer’d him and ranked 9 and 8, respectively. UC Davis Legend Joshua Kelley came in at 12 to round out the RB1s, and 54% of Tyler Allgeier owners have spent the last week alternately kicking themselves for sitting the RB4 and wondering if the Falcons top fantasy option’s performance was anomolous. The same but opposite goes for the owners of Josh Jacobs, Joe Mixon, Kenneth Walker, Saquon Barkley, Cam Akers, Rachaad White, and Jahmyr Gibbs, all of whom were drafted in the top 24 and did not live up to their draft position.
There was less variance with the top 36 WRs, save for a few surprises (hi-fiving YOU Puka Nacua and Kendrick Bourne!)
As far as my own forecasting, none of my “Starts” hit, but almost all of my “Sits” did, prompting me to wonder if I should just do “Sits/Sits” every week. I finished at 7-5-1 with Cole Kmet, Logan Thomas, and the WAS Def/ST justifying my optimism.
I’m going to go out on a limb and say that THIS WEEK is going to trend more toward actual ADP.
As always, my “Starts” and “Streams” will finish inside and my “Sits” will finish outside the QB12, RB24, WR36, TE12, and Def/ST12.
START
Kirk Cousins vs. NE
If you have Cousins, I can only imagine that he is your QB2, or you waited a lawwwng time to draft him as your QB1. He did finish at QB9 the first week, but he was still only started by 61% of owners. Start him in week 2. He goes against the Eagles defense that just allowed Mac Jones to finish as QB2 on the back of Kendrick Bourne and barely cracking the 300 yard mark. Cousins exceeded his week 1 points total 10 times in 2022. He’ll do it this week, as well.
Tyler Allgeier vs. GB
Let’s just say that Allgeier and Bijan Robinson flip roles in week 2. Allgeier got 18 touches in week 1 and Bijan got 16. If what we all think is true and Bijan takes over the touch share, and this is the week that it happens, Allgeier will be fine. A lot of folks are up in arms about Arthur Smith’s offense and how it affects Kyle Pitts and Drake London, but it may be more important for RB owners to have a backfield with two rstartable guys that can be counted on. I made an investment in Allgeier last year in my home league and I was B E R E F T when the Falcons made the Bijan pick. After going through my stages of grief, I suspected there might be more to the madness than Allgeier just losing all relevancy. After week 1, that may be an apt analysis.
Nico Collins vs. IND
Nico Collins’ Year 3 breakout is officially under way. After finishing as WR86 as a rookie and WR 77 in year 2, Nico started his third season with a top 24 finish on 10 targets. It has been established that he is the guy in HOU and that CJ Stroud wants to get Collins the ball. We know that the Texans will be looking at negative game scripts for most of the year and that will benefit Collins. Week 2 sees the Texans host the Colts who watched Calvin Ridley and Zay Jones both finish in the top 18. Nico is a smash.
SIT
Joe Burrow vs. BAL
Burrow faced the Ravens 3 times in 2022. He finished with 20 points or more (Wk1 QB11) just once. And he was fully healthy. I love Joe Burrow and I know you invested in him, but if you have the option of taking a shot at someone with more upside, I would do that. In SuperFlex leagues, Burrow is in your lineup, but in single QB, give Burrow another week or two.
Alexander Mattison vs. PHI
A. it’s a Thursday Night Football broadcast. B. Mattison has never averaged more than 3.82 YPC. C. Mattison is not a receiving back. D. The Eagles held Rhamondre to 2.08 YPC. If Rhamondre didn’t turn his receiving targets into 12.4 points, he’d have been outscored by Zeke Elliott. Mattison isn’t as good as either.
Drake London vs. GB
I know you’re sad. I know you drafted Drake London ahead of Brandon Aiyuk. I know you picked him and not Michael Pittman, or Jahan Dotson, or George Pickens. And I know you’re googling “Arthur Smith address people finder.” The solution is not to put him in your lineup and hope. The solution is to replace him and wait. Sorry about it.
STREAM
Saints Def/ST vs. CAR
The Carolina Panthers are a mess. Their offense generated 10 points on 72 plays and kept giving the ball to the Falcons to keep them in the game. The Saints generate turnovers and will do the same in week 2. If ever you are streaming a defense, the first thing you want to look at is a rookie QB. Bryce Young may turn out to be great, but this week he’s still a rookie QB going against a good defense.
Jake Ferguson vs. NYJ
If the Dallas defense can do to Zach Wilson what they did to Daniel Jones, Dallas should have the ball a lot. Dak Prescott targeted Ferguson 7 times against the Giants, and while he was only able to haul in two of those targets, he’s obviously the go-to TE in that offense. The Bills targeted Kincaid and Knox 8 times on Monday so their TE volume allowed tracks. Top 4 volume for Ferguson will turn in to top 12 performance.